Your Host Breaks Down Early Voting Numbers and Tightening Polls


RUSH: All right. I want to try to make some sense of the polling data out there, and there is a polling firm that you never hear about; I want to introduce them to you. You may have heard about them. They're not a mystery. They do polling work every election. They were the closest to accurate in 2016. The name of the polling outfit is Trafalgar, and they do state by state.

They do nationwide. They do battleground states and so forth, and the interesting thing is they've got the race tightening. They have the race tightening in a massive, massive way here -- and I just got something else about it that I need to print here real quick. I told you this is gonna be on the fly here in this segment when we got to it.

So let the printer go nuts here behind me for a second, I'll grab what it spits out here and then I'll be ready to head back in here at full speed ahead. Okay. Let me start this by asking you a question. In the past, when the subject of early voting came up, did you kind of cringe? "Oh, no early voting?" Did you always say, "Early voting? We're gonna lose."

We never win it.

We Republicans, we never win early voting.

I don't know about you, but for many elections I have cringed when I have heard the early voting numbers. It seems like another element of the deck stacked against us. We know that early voting exists to stack the deck, or we assume that it exists for that reason. I know there are people on our side who like the concept of early voting because they like to the bet it out of the way, beat the crowd on Election Day, what have you.

I never have liked it. I haven't liked any of this. I've never been in favor of early voting. Absentee? Fine. But mail-in voting? I think Election Day is whatever it is and that's when you go vote -- and if it's crowded, screw it. You go vote. Anything else is a recipe for opening up and introducing fraud into the process, and that's why I think it's been done.

One of the ways that I've always convinced myself this is true is that the Democrats seem to always win big in early voting numbers, and we hear about this on election night; then we spend the rest of the night agonizing, trying to catch up. I don't know where you live, but in certain states, one day of early voting, and the lines are a mile long, a two-hour wait.

These are people that don't want to vote on Election Day because of the big crowds, but they'll show up on early voting day and they'll wait two hours if they have to. "Data out of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio indicates that registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats in the battleground states" in early voting. That's big to me. That's uncommon.

Normally, the Democrats score big in early voting 'cause they're out there pushing their voters to the polls. They're lining them up in the little yellow buses and they're driving them wherever they have to go. Here's the headline of this story: "Early voting data in battleground states shows Trump outpacing national polls giving Biden an edge." It's in the Washington Examiner.

"The Republican Party is keeping pace in mail-in and early voting in three key swing states despite polls showing early voting should clearly favor Joe . Data out of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio indicates that registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats in the battleground states.

"In Michigan as of Wednesday, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats.

"The preliminary data matches up with the requests by party affiliation for mail-in ballots. The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person." This is actually big news. "According to a Pew Research poll released , 55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump."

See, that's what I've always become accustomed to. That's why early voting and all this stuff just has always rubbed me the wrong way. But it is turning around. Now... "Not all of the early voting data is good news for Republicans. In other key swing states such as Florida, Democrats lead 51%-29%. Democrats lead even larger in North Carolina, which has so far returned 51% of ballots from Democrats ...18% from Republicans."

The next story. Real Clear Politics: "Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016 Does It Again -- Robert Cahaly, senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, made a name for himself in 2016 by being the only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania -- two key states he carried -- heading into Election Day. ( did not poll Wisconsin, another surprising win for Trump.)

"Cahaly also showed Trump ahead in North Carolina and Florida, both of which he won, securing his improbable 304-227 Electoral College victory over Clinton. Cahaly managed to pick up support for Trump that all other pollsters missed by employing a unique method that sought to measure support from voters who'd been 'inactive' in recent election cycles, as well as adding a question to his surveys designed to isolate the effect of social desirability bias among Trump voters -- the concept that people won't tell pollsters their true intentions for fear of being stigmatized or" worse.

He has found a way of getting past that, or getting through all that, getting voters or respondents to tell him the truth. So finding voters who have been "inactive..." In other words, people who hadn't voted for a long time and are gonna vote again, he found them. "After asking voters who they were supporting in 2016, followed up by asking them who they thought their neighbors were supporting, Trump or Clinton.

"Cahaly consistently found a high degree of variance between who respondents said they were voting for and who they thought their neighbors were voting for, suggesting there was in fact a 'shy Trump effect' at play." This gives rise to another phenomenon called "the shy Trump voter," and the shy Trump voter is bigger this year than it's ever been.

So who is the shy Trump voter? Who falls into this category? Well, there's a story here at Townhall on the shy Trump voter, and it says that the people falling into this category ought to "terrify Democrats." Matt Vespa with the story. Let me share this with you. "I'll say it again, folks. The polling is screwed. It's skewed. It's a mess.

"Either we're right to be highly skeptical and Trump wins an Electoral College landslide, or the pollsters are right and we're heading for Armageddon come Election Day. Still, the oversampling of Democrats, college-educated voters, and suburban Republicans hostile to Trump should bring a ton of scrutiny."

"The reluctance from some of these clown firms to switch to likely voter samples is also suspect," meaning some of these other polling firms simply will not move off of registered voters, and they will not move off their overly outward Democrat sample size. They will not move to likely voters. This guy, Trafalgar's Robert Cahaly, strictly deals with likely voters and the shy Trump voter.

Trying to find out who these people are, why they are shy... We all know why: They're scared to death of being "stigmatized" or worse. "The reluctance from some of these clown firms to switch to likely voter samples is also suspect. We're not going to have a 2008 or 2012 electorate," and they keep trying to replicate that, and it's not gonna happen -- 2008, 2012 are Obama turnouts, and that's what they keep trying to replicate, these polling firms do.

"For starters, a new Hill-Harris poll noted that young Americans are not excited about this election at all." I think I have been telling you this, but it's not just this election. They never are. We're always told, "Rock the Vote this! Get-out-the-vote! The youth are gonna be the difference in this election." They never are. They never turn out in numbers the Democrats expect or hope.

"Gallup is reporting the youth interest in voting this cycle has hit its lowest levels since 2000. That's in keeping with the results from Democracy Institute's Patrick Basham, whose polling data, which has been mentioned in the Washington Times and Forbes, suggests there will be one million fewer young people voting this cycle."

That's why if you go to my Twitter page, you will find us urging you to do what you can to help the elderly get out and vote. It's always the seasoned citizens. They're the ones that have more vested interested in the outcome. They're older. They have more wisdom. Most of their life is behind them. They care about their country. They want to do what they can to ensure it.

That's why our focus is on seasoned citizens.

Now, Patrick "Basham spoke with Joseph Cotto about his new data. ... Democracy Institute's poll had a sample size of 1,500 likely voters, where Trump leads Joe Biden by one point. He also noted that the 'shy Trump' vote is very much alive and will be bigger this time. Suburban white women and urban black women are the two groups that are most likely to fall into the shy category..."

Oh, really?

We're told that suburban white women hate Trump. They despise Trump. They're not gonna be where near. According to this, "uburban "white women and urban black women are the two groups that are most likely to fall into the shy category," and that is the data that "should shake Democrats to their core." If that's correct, if that's right, this ought to have them quaking in their boots.

"And as for Florida, a state that Biden must carry, it could already be out of his reach. Basham notes Trump cannot fall asleep at the wheel, but things are becoming more comfortable for him . And based on some recent polling from the state, it looks like the tide has shifted solidly in favor of the president." Now, back one more to Trafalgar.

They have Trump ahead now in Michigan -- and it's by the slimmest of margins. Donald Trump 46.5%, Biden 45.9%. In both of these polls, the Michigan poll and the nationwide Trafalgar... Well, the nationwide Trafalgar is the IBD, Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll -- and in that poll, Biden is below 50% for the first time in who knows when.

He's at 48.7%; Trump's at 43.5%. They're going the opposite way. Trump's climbing. Biden is losing ground in IBD/TIPP, and now in Michigan. Michigan Trafalgar poll today: Trump 46.5%, Biden 45.9%. He's down a point, Biden is. But this is new. This is the trend. This is direction that it is headed. Now, the IBD poll... This is a little PS here before we go to the break.

"The IBD poll adds 200 new respondents per day until they reach a total of 800 to 1,000." It began with Biden nine up, five to six days ago, and he's gone down to only five up yesterday. So Biden is losing in IBD more than a point every two days -- and if the trend keeps up, he might be behind -- at that rate -- by next week. This is the poll and the guy that nailed it in 2016.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Ladies and gentlemen, a minor correction on early voting in North Carolina. I erred, I had incorrect data. The truth is Republicans are ahead of their early voting pace in North Carolina in 2016. A seven-point difference. The Democrats are down three early voting compared to 2016. Republicans are up four. That's how you arrive at the seven-point difference. This is accounting for all votes cast through one day.

Electronic early voting and by mail. So in North Carolina you could say that the pace is even better for early voting for Republicans. The reason again that's noteworthy is that I'm just not used to that. I'm used to every time I see early voting, I've cringed, I've cringed 'cause here come the numbers, Democrats are always way ahead. And you have to keep something in mind. That's what I tell myself.

We always assume that the Democrats are highly motivated, enthused, chomping at the bit, and for some reason we assume our side isn't. And I think we have to assume that our side is livid at just the wanton unfairness of this whole thing, not to mention the bias, just the wanton unfairness, just this never ending four-year project to ruin the guy they love, Donald Trump, to ruin his presidency and his campaign and his life and his family. His family hasn't tried to enrich themselves. His family has helped bring peace to the Middle East. Biden's family can't say anything of the sort. It's not even comparable.